Past day verification and analysis: It's never felt so good to be wrong. I predicted a typical cold air damming day with drizzle and cool conditions. Instead we had clear skies with a deep blue sky, crisp air and seasonably cool temperatures. It was a perfect early fall day. High: 79 Low: 57
Updates:
Synoptic Analysis: Mostly cloudy skies will persist today along with dry and seasonably cool conditions. The weather will remain seasonable and dry through the extended.
Near term (12 hr): The triangle is under the entrance region of an upper level jet. This jet will shift NW through the day placing Raleigh under the right entrance region. This along with a deepening trough to the west will provide upper level support... however dry air due to a surface high to the north is prevalent in the mid and lower levels... therefore pops will remain at zero. Cloud cover will keep radiational cooling to a minimum. Will go with very slightly less than persistance for high due to cloudiness and and warmer than persistence for the low due to the same reasoning.
Short term ( 12 -60 hr): The basic pattern will persist through the short term... however toward the end RH values increase and a very weak broad surface low develops off the cost. The best 500 mb support stays to the east and RH around 500 mb stays low... As of now expect precip to remain along and off the coast. Will go with dry and seasonable conditions through the period. Temps will warm a bit near the end of the forecast period due to a southerly surface wind along with week waa... do expect mostly cloudy conditions to occur through the period due to remaining below the right entrance region of the weak upper jet streak and down stream of the trough... This same trough will likely have a big impact on the steering of Tropical Storm Erica in the long term...
Long term (Beyond 60 hr):
Forecast:
Wednesday afternoon: Another nice fall day with variable clouds: High 78
Wednesday night: Variable clouds: Low 61
Thursday: Partly to mostly cloudy skies High 80 Low 62
Friday: Partly to mostly cloudy skies High 82 Low 63
Saturday:
Sunday:
Monday
Tuesday:
Review of RAH AFD:
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