Past forecast verification and analysis:

Updates:

Synoptic Analysis:

Near term (12 hr): The central US is currently under a broad closed off upper level trough. This will open up and slowly move eastward over the next 12 hours. Precipitation is falling along the eastern slope of the long wave. Precip should remain to our west during the near term however cloud cover is relatively abundant. Could see some breaks in the clouds however... so will go low 80's for the high.

Short term ( 12 -72 hr): High pressure in New England will slowly drift off the coast... however.. winds will continue to circulate clockwise around the high providing us with an ENE surface breeze. Moisture near the surface should remain abundant therefore expect mostly cloudy conditions to continue through the short term. A low pressure system looks to approach from well off the Florida coast. This will take the typical Hatteras curve if you will. This could affect our weather later in the short term. in the more immediate short term don't really see a good lifting mechanism except for very slight isentropic upglide... just enough to mention drizzle. Will keep temps slightly below climatology. Both NAM and GFS support this... Soundings don't even really show much in the way of drizzle so will just mention 20 pop for showers or light drizzle. It does look like some upslope will occur in the foothills but this obviously won't effect us. Looks like any precip that may effect us from the subtropical low would not occur until after the short term.

Long term (Only if a legit major system is showing up): Very quick beach forecast for next weekend. GFS showing a decent cold front moving through on Sunday. Most of the dynamics will be to the north with this front and should mention that GFS shows a cold bias especially in the long term. This would effect the strength of the lift associated with the front and the amount of cold air behind it. The high is likely a bit too strong and well too far south in the latest run. Looks like a chance of rain Saturday and Sunday with clearing on Monday but timing will most likely change. The trough looks much too strong for this time of the year and therefore the amount of cold air flowing in from the north looks fairly ridiculous.

Forecast:

Saturday: Mostly cloudy High 80 Low 63

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers or drizzle High 80 Low 63

Monday: Mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers or drizzle High 81 Low 63

Review of RAH AFD: