Past day verification and analysis:
Updates:
Synoptic Analysis: Cold air damming will continue today and tomorrow causing unseasonably cool weather. Dry and seasonable weather will occur on Wednesday and Thursday. A chance of afternoon thunderstorms along with seasonably warm conditions through the weeked.
Near term (12 hr): Short AFD today as more attention will be paid to verification later. Chance of light showers and drizzle will continue through the Tuesday due to cold air damming high which will settle over the great lakes region. Will go unseasonably cool this afternoon and two categories below climatology tomorrow. Front will stalled to the east keeping clouds through tomorrow.
Short term ( 12 -60 hr): Cold air damming will begin to erode by mid week but potentially reignite later on Thursday into the night. Will go seasonably cool and mostly cloudy with decreasing clouds in the afternoon on Wednesday. Dry air will hinder precip on Thursday. Potential overrunning even Thursday night as a weak low pressure forms off the coast. Will pay more attention to this tomorrow.
Long term (Beyond 60 hr): Raleigh will stay down stream of the trough axis just west of the mountains. Southerly winds will bring more seasonable temps and increase chances for afternoon convection through the weekend. Will go summer climatological on pops with climatological to a category above for high. Not too worried about timing in the long term.
Forecast:
Monday afternoon: drizzly with scattered showers high 69
Monday night: drizzly with scattered showers low 67
Tuesday: Cloudy with a chance of drizzle High 75 Low 67
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with decreasing clouds in the afternoon High 81 Low 60
Thursday: Partly cloudy in the morning with increasing clouds in the afternoon High 79 low 64 30% chance showers overnight.
Friday: Cloudy in the morning with decreasing clouds in the afternoon. 30% chance storms High 80 Low 66
Saturday: Partly cloudy with a 30% chance afternoon storms high 84 low 67
Sunday: Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of afternoon storms high 86 low 69
Review of RAH AFD:
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