Monday, September 14, 2009

Past forecast verification and analysis: High yesterday was 82 with a low of 67. Anything within 3 degrees I consider verified. High of 87 on Saturday. I just should have took a closer look at the sat to get closer on that one. Bottom dropped out Sunday morning due to inversion setting up.

Updates:

Synoptic Analysis: Seasonably warm and dry conditions will continue through the evening. Clouds will increase on Wednesday with seasonable temperatures.

Near term (12 hr): Same basic story as last forecast period. Large stream of dry air aloft is keeping all cloudiness away. Expect temps to soar into the upper 80's thanks to abundant sunshine. Will lower Saturday's forecast temp for Monday a couple of degrees due to current temp readings. Expect an inversion to setup this morning as opposed to last night due to very dry and calm conditions. Will bottom out temps to 60.

Short term ( 12 -72 hr): Upper level low stays to the west through the short term, but winds do begin to shift to SW at the surface. Flow from off the coast is takes a long track therefore expect modification of any moisture as it mixes with dry air currently in our region. Don't feel good about precip through Wedn. So won't even mention it even as the upper level low slowly drifts toward the east.

Long term (Only if a legit major system is showing up): Upper level low will be a factor in the long term but won't get into any specifics yet. But will say that could be some decent precip near the end of the week.

Forecast:


Monday: Sunny with a high of 88 Low near 60

Tuesday: Mostly Sunny with a high of 88 low near 63

Wednesday: Mostly sunny with increasing clouds in the afternoon. high of 85 Low near 65

Review of RAH AFD:

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