Past day verification and analysis: High 89 Low 63 No precip - w/in one of the high and 2 of the low, so nothing unexpected.

Updates:

Synoptic Analysis: Seasonably warm weather today will give way to seasonable weather for the rest of the week. A weak area of low pressure along the coastal plain will provide a chance of showers on Monday and Tuesday.

Near term (12 hr): Today's forecast from yesterday looks fine. I don't see a reason to make any major changes. Will lower the low and go with persistence. Looks like little in the way of cloud cover tonight despite being under the left exit of a weak upper level jet.

Short term ( 12 -60 hr): A weak cold air damming high will continue to develop and basically stall in New England. Along with that a weak low pressure down stream of the trough... which may be some remnants from the Tropical Storm... will move north along the coastal plain Monday and Tuesday... therefore will bring in a chance of showers Monday night and Tuesday. qpf looks to be on the light side due to a significant lack of moisture. Soundings do become saturated 0z Monday with some light isentropic lift due to some lower level waa. I can't help but think that models may be underdoing the precip a bit even if the surface dynamics are weak. With winds just above the surface from off the coast am thinking there will be enough moisture to squeeze out a few showers at the very least. Both the GFS and the NAM keep the large majority of the precip centered near the surface low along the Carolina coast. The upper level low associated with this system is small in circumference bet packs a pretty decent punch in relation to its size. But lack of moisture looks to be the main issue. Expect temps to be around or slightly below climatology due to cloud cover. The forecast could change based on the location of the upper level low.

Long term (Beyond 60 hr):

The pattern looks to remain virtually the same with a weak damming high to the north and some weak impulses developing near the coast. Will go slight chance Thursday which is the only day the GFS spits out some precip for our region. Climatological temps through the extended.

Forecast:

Sunday afternoon: Partly Cloudy high 88

Sunday night: Mostly clear low 63

Monday: Mostly cloudy with a 50% chance of showers through the night. Precip around .1 inches High 82 Low 65

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a 50% chance of showers mainly before noon with a 30% chance form noon through the night. Precip around .1 inches High 82 Low 65

Wednesday: Decreasing clouds. High 83 low 65

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers. High 83 Low 65

Friday: Partly cloudy. High 83 Low 65

Saturday: Partly cloudy. High 83 Low 65


Review of RAH AFD: