Sat Sept 12

Past forecast verification and analysis: Despite the lack of rain the 20 % coverage of showers was warranted with some shower activity to the east. High of 82 and low of 62 which was very close to the predicted min/max.

Updates:

Synoptic Analysis: Dry and and seasonable conditions will continue today and tomorrow with a slight warming trend beginning by the beginning of the week.

Near term (12 hr): Very strong upper level cut off low currently spinning in the Dakotas doesn't look to have a direct effect on the weather in the Triangle. Cary still finds itself under a fairly weak but pretty well dugout trough which extends into the deep south. being located within the trough has resulted in substinence and dry weather the past several days. Some weak vorticity could move in from the north this evening. Moisture is quite limited so won't even mention any associated precip. Maybe some light cloud cover over night will support lows in the mid 60's as upposed to bottoming out in the low 60's

Short term ( 12 -72 hr): A strong upper level low will develop over the Ozarks region and drift slowly east near the end of the short term. This shouldn't directly impact raleigh weather during the short term. The indirect effect will be due to the surface low formation southeast of the upper air disturbance. This will provide us with southwesterlies at the surface due to the ccw around the surface low. Potential for showers looks limited due to a lack of moisture. Some flow off the Atlantic takes a round about route to get to the triangle therefore expect any moist air to modify before it flows into the triangle. This system will likely provide us with a decent chance of showers and storms by the middle/end of next week.

Long term (Only if the potential for a legit major storm or other weather event exists):

Forecast:

Saturday: Variable clouds with a high of 84 low 64

Sunday: Partly cloudy high of 84 low 63

Monday: Partly cloudy high of 90 low 64

Review of RAH AFD: