Saturday Sept 5

Past day verification and analysis:

Updates:

Synoptic Analysis: Seasonably warm and dry conditions will occur today. A slight cool down tomorrow will bring more seasonable temperatures and continued dry air. There will be a chance of showers by the middle of the week.

Near term (12 hr): The Triangle is down stream of an extremely positively tilted trough axis which stretches from southwest Texas NE into New England. This pattern has led to a surface high near the Great Lakes Region. The circulation around this high pressure has led an easterly wind at the surface. Soundings are dry and expect this to continue through the evening. 850 mb techniques in regards to surface temp seems reasonable due to decent mixing with partly cloudy skies through the day. This technique reveals highs around 90.

Short term ( 12 -60 hr):

The general patter continues. The trough does pinch off an upper level low which begins to shift east towards the end of the short term. A weak surface low develops off the coast down stream of the u shaped isobar arrangement east of the mountains. The setup looks like an extremely weak cold air damming set up. Will go with about persistence tomorrow and follow that up with seasonable conditions on Monday. Nam spits out some showers due to easterly flow around the weak low. GFS keeps things dry. I like the GFS solution for now although can't rule out some weak overrunning on Monday. Will just play it safe and go with chance shower on Monday and will reevaluate tomorrow. This won't be a major rain event so won't worry too much about getting it exactly right too early.

Long term (Beyond 60 hr):

The pattern basically remains the same through the extended. Will go with seasonable to seasonably cool conditions. Will keep things dry as well as the GFS struggles to produce precip due to dry air and stability. Again... can't rule out light overrunning event during the extended but I don't see anything that jumps out at me at this time.... therefore will stick with dry conditions.

Forecast:

Saturday afternoon: Partly cloudy with a high near 90

Saturday night: Partly cloudy Low 65

Sunday: Partly cloudy High 88 Low 66

Monday: Mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers High 89 Low 67

Tuesday: Partly Cloudy High 86 Low 65

Wednesday: Partly Cloudy High 85 Low 65

Thursday: Partly Cloudy High 81 Low 65

Friday: Partly Cloudy High 81 Low 65
Review of RAH AFD: