Saturday afternoon: A 40% chance of showers and storms. Precip less than .1 inches.
Saturday night: A 60% chance of showers and storms. Precip .25 - .5 inches.
Sunday: A 60% chance of showers and storms before noon, but mainly earlier in the morning. A 20% chance between noon and 2 PM with clouds decreasing after noon. High 84 but a bit lower on the beach.
Sunday night: Clearing skies
Monday: Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of late afternoon storms. Precip less than .1 inches High 86 but lower on the beach.
Monday night: Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers/storms in the evening. Precip less than .1 inches.
Tuesday: Clear and cooler with a high of 78.
Friday, September 25, 2009
Saturday, September 19, 2009
Past forecast verification and analysis:
Updates:
Synoptic Analysis:
Near term (12 hr): The central US is currently under a broad closed off upper level trough. This will open up and slowly move eastward over the next 12 hours. Precipitation is falling along the eastern slope of the long wave. Precip should remain to our west during the near term however cloud cover is relatively abundant. Could see some breaks in the clouds however... so will go low 80's for the high.
Short term ( 12 -72 hr): High pressure in New England will slowly drift off the coast... however.. winds will continue to circulate clockwise around the high providing us with an ENE surface breeze. Moisture near the surface should remain abundant therefore expect mostly cloudy conditions to continue through the short term. A low pressure system looks to approach from well off the Florida coast. This will take the typical Hatteras curve if you will. This could affect our weather later in the short term. in the more immediate short term don't really see a good lifting mechanism except for very slight isentropic upglide... just enough to mention drizzle. Will keep temps slightly below climatology. Both NAM and GFS support this... Soundings don't even really show much in the way of drizzle so will just mention 20 pop for showers or light drizzle. It does look like some upslope will occur in the foothills but this obviously won't effect us. Looks like any precip that may effect us from the subtropical low would not occur until after the short term.
Long term (Only if a legit major system is showing up): Very quick beach forecast for next weekend. GFS showing a decent cold front moving through on Sunday. Most of the dynamics will be to the north with this front and should mention that GFS shows a cold bias especially in the long term. This would effect the strength of the lift associated with the front and the amount of cold air behind it. The high is likely a bit too strong and well too far south in the latest run. Looks like a chance of rain Saturday and Sunday with clearing on Monday but timing will most likely change. The trough looks much too strong for this time of the year and therefore the amount of cold air flowing in from the north looks fairly ridiculous.
Forecast:
Saturday: Mostly cloudy High 80 Low 63
Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers or drizzle High 80 Low 63
Monday: Mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers or drizzle High 81 Low 63
Review of RAH AFD:
Updates:
Synoptic Analysis:
Near term (12 hr): The central US is currently under a broad closed off upper level trough. This will open up and slowly move eastward over the next 12 hours. Precipitation is falling along the eastern slope of the long wave. Precip should remain to our west during the near term however cloud cover is relatively abundant. Could see some breaks in the clouds however... so will go low 80's for the high.
Short term ( 12 -72 hr): High pressure in New England will slowly drift off the coast... however.. winds will continue to circulate clockwise around the high providing us with an ENE surface breeze. Moisture near the surface should remain abundant therefore expect mostly cloudy conditions to continue through the short term. A low pressure system looks to approach from well off the Florida coast. This will take the typical Hatteras curve if you will. This could affect our weather later in the short term. in the more immediate short term don't really see a good lifting mechanism except for very slight isentropic upglide... just enough to mention drizzle. Will keep temps slightly below climatology. Both NAM and GFS support this... Soundings don't even really show much in the way of drizzle so will just mention 20 pop for showers or light drizzle. It does look like some upslope will occur in the foothills but this obviously won't effect us. Looks like any precip that may effect us from the subtropical low would not occur until after the short term.
Long term (Only if a legit major system is showing up): Very quick beach forecast for next weekend. GFS showing a decent cold front moving through on Sunday. Most of the dynamics will be to the north with this front and should mention that GFS shows a cold bias especially in the long term. This would effect the strength of the lift associated with the front and the amount of cold air behind it. The high is likely a bit too strong and well too far south in the latest run. Looks like a chance of rain Saturday and Sunday with clearing on Monday but timing will most likely change. The trough looks much too strong for this time of the year and therefore the amount of cold air flowing in from the north looks fairly ridiculous.
Forecast:
Saturday: Mostly cloudy High 80 Low 63
Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers or drizzle High 80 Low 63
Monday: Mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers or drizzle High 81 Low 63
Review of RAH AFD:
Monday, September 14, 2009
Past forecast verification and analysis: High yesterday was 82 with a low of 67. Anything within 3 degrees I consider verified. High of 87 on Saturday. I just should have took a closer look at the sat to get closer on that one. Bottom dropped out Sunday morning due to inversion setting up.
Updates:
Synoptic Analysis: Seasonably warm and dry conditions will continue through the evening. Clouds will increase on Wednesday with seasonable temperatures.
Near term (12 hr): Same basic story as last forecast period. Large stream of dry air aloft is keeping all cloudiness away. Expect temps to soar into the upper 80's thanks to abundant sunshine. Will lower Saturday's forecast temp for Monday a couple of degrees due to current temp readings. Expect an inversion to setup this morning as opposed to last night due to very dry and calm conditions. Will bottom out temps to 60.
Short term ( 12 -72 hr): Upper level low stays to the west through the short term, but winds do begin to shift to SW at the surface. Flow from off the coast is takes a long track therefore expect modification of any moisture as it mixes with dry air currently in our region. Don't feel good about precip through Wedn. So won't even mention it even as the upper level low slowly drifts toward the east.
Long term (Only if a legit major system is showing up): Upper level low will be a factor in the long term but won't get into any specifics yet. But will say that could be some decent precip near the end of the week.
Forecast:
Monday: Sunny with a high of 88 Low near 60
Tuesday: Mostly Sunny with a high of 88 low near 63
Wednesday: Mostly sunny with increasing clouds in the afternoon. high of 85 Low near 65
Review of RAH AFD:
Updates:
Synoptic Analysis: Seasonably warm and dry conditions will continue through the evening. Clouds will increase on Wednesday with seasonable temperatures.
Near term (12 hr): Same basic story as last forecast period. Large stream of dry air aloft is keeping all cloudiness away. Expect temps to soar into the upper 80's thanks to abundant sunshine. Will lower Saturday's forecast temp for Monday a couple of degrees due to current temp readings. Expect an inversion to setup this morning as opposed to last night due to very dry and calm conditions. Will bottom out temps to 60.
Short term ( 12 -72 hr): Upper level low stays to the west through the short term, but winds do begin to shift to SW at the surface. Flow from off the coast is takes a long track therefore expect modification of any moisture as it mixes with dry air currently in our region. Don't feel good about precip through Wedn. So won't even mention it even as the upper level low slowly drifts toward the east.
Long term (Only if a legit major system is showing up): Upper level low will be a factor in the long term but won't get into any specifics yet. But will say that could be some decent precip near the end of the week.
Forecast:
Monday: Sunny with a high of 88 Low near 60
Tuesday: Mostly Sunny with a high of 88 low near 63
Wednesday: Mostly sunny with increasing clouds in the afternoon. high of 85 Low near 65
Review of RAH AFD:
Saturday, September 12, 2009
Sat Sept 12
Past forecast verification and analysis: Despite the lack of rain the 20 % coverage of showers was warranted with some shower activity to the east. High of 82 and low of 62 which was very close to the predicted min/max.
Updates:
Synoptic Analysis: Dry and and seasonable conditions will continue today and tomorrow with a slight warming trend beginning by the beginning of the week.
Near term (12 hr): Very strong upper level cut off low currently spinning in the Dakotas doesn't look to have a direct effect on the weather in the Triangle. Cary still finds itself under a fairly weak but pretty well dugout trough which extends into the deep south. being located within the trough has resulted in substinence and dry weather the past several days. Some weak vorticity could move in from the north this evening. Moisture is quite limited so won't even mention any associated precip. Maybe some light cloud cover over night will support lows in the mid 60's as upposed to bottoming out in the low 60's
Short term ( 12 -72 hr): A strong upper level low will develop over the Ozarks region and drift slowly east near the end of the short term. This shouldn't directly impact raleigh weather during the short term. The indirect effect will be due to the surface low formation southeast of the upper air disturbance. This will provide us with southwesterlies at the surface due to the ccw around the surface low. Potential for showers looks limited due to a lack of moisture. Some flow off the Atlantic takes a round about route to get to the triangle therefore expect any moist air to modify before it flows into the triangle. This system will likely provide us with a decent chance of showers and storms by the middle/end of next week.
Long term (Only if the potential for a legit major storm or other weather event exists):
Forecast:
Saturday: Variable clouds with a high of 84 low 64
Sunday: Partly cloudy high of 84 low 63
Monday: Partly cloudy high of 90 low 64
Review of RAH AFD:
Updates:
Synoptic Analysis: Dry and and seasonable conditions will continue today and tomorrow with a slight warming trend beginning by the beginning of the week.
Near term (12 hr): Very strong upper level cut off low currently spinning in the Dakotas doesn't look to have a direct effect on the weather in the Triangle. Cary still finds itself under a fairly weak but pretty well dugout trough which extends into the deep south. being located within the trough has resulted in substinence and dry weather the past several days. Some weak vorticity could move in from the north this evening. Moisture is quite limited so won't even mention any associated precip. Maybe some light cloud cover over night will support lows in the mid 60's as upposed to bottoming out in the low 60's
Short term ( 12 -72 hr): A strong upper level low will develop over the Ozarks region and drift slowly east near the end of the short term. This shouldn't directly impact raleigh weather during the short term. The indirect effect will be due to the surface low formation southeast of the upper air disturbance. This will provide us with southwesterlies at the surface due to the ccw around the surface low. Potential for showers looks limited due to a lack of moisture. Some flow off the Atlantic takes a round about route to get to the triangle therefore expect any moist air to modify before it flows into the triangle. This system will likely provide us with a decent chance of showers and storms by the middle/end of next week.
Long term (Only if the potential for a legit major storm or other weather event exists):
Forecast:
Saturday: Variable clouds with a high of 84 low 64
Sunday: Partly cloudy high of 84 low 63
Monday: Partly cloudy high of 90 low 64
Review of RAH AFD:
Wednesday, September 9, 2009
Wednesday September 9
Past forecast verification and analysis: My 50% rain forecast was more than warranted as a surprisingly strong and virtually stalled deformation zone setup over Raleigh. Cary received around half an inch with Raleigh receiving well more than that.
Updates:
Synoptic Analysis: Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be the norm over the next few days with a slight chance of showers over night. Seasonably cool temperatures will continue over the next few days with slight modification as the week comes to an end.
Near term (12 hr):
RDU is currently located under the left exit region of an upper level jet which should provide subsidence along with decreasing clouds in the extreme near term. RDU will be near the center of the upper level low towards the end of the near term. Currrent soundings show a backing profile above at 900 mb which verifies the upper air analysis of subsiding air despite some cloudiness aloft. Expect 500 mb vort max to approach from the west this evening. This could help ignite a shower or two. Will go 20 percent just to cover myself. Any precip should remain light. Partial clearing should aid in temps reaching one cat below climatology. It will be interesting to see if the line of storms to our west hold together.
Short term ( 12 -72 hr):
RDU remains in the trough through the short term. The strength of the trough weakens a bit and then restrengthens a bit later in the period likely due to some downstream assistance (if you will) from the much stronger trough in the upper plains. A weak low pressure is predicted by the GFS to form in South Carolina, weaken and then restrengthen over the Gulf Stream. Can't rule out a chance of showers and storms Friday afternoon and evening due to this weak surface low and some weak vorticity aloft. The upper air dynamics truly are weak though. It's difficult to tell whether or not RDU is truly in the left exit region of a jet or if my eyes are just seeing things. At this time I just don't see enough evidence to warrant and pops. Will go with slightly below persistent high for tomorrow due to some weak CAA along with residual cloud cover. Air will modify a bit on Friday.
Long term (Only if a legit major system is showing up):
Forecast:
Wednesday: Decreasing clouds with a high of 81. 20% chance of showers/storms tonight low of 61
Thursday: Partly cloudy high 79 low 59
Friday: Partly cloudy high 82 low 60
Review of RAH AFD: I said we were under the LE region of a jet which leads to subsidence. Just a mental mistake on my part as the LE leads to rising air, which I knew. Just not thinking clear this morning. I need to double check myself when typing stuff up. If I ever put something like that out in public I'd get called out big time by the weather nerds.
Updates:
Synoptic Analysis: Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be the norm over the next few days with a slight chance of showers over night. Seasonably cool temperatures will continue over the next few days with slight modification as the week comes to an end.
Near term (12 hr):
RDU is currently located under the left exit region of an upper level jet which should provide subsidence along with decreasing clouds in the extreme near term. RDU will be near the center of the upper level low towards the end of the near term. Currrent soundings show a backing profile above at 900 mb which verifies the upper air analysis of subsiding air despite some cloudiness aloft. Expect 500 mb vort max to approach from the west this evening. This could help ignite a shower or two. Will go 20 percent just to cover myself. Any precip should remain light. Partial clearing should aid in temps reaching one cat below climatology. It will be interesting to see if the line of storms to our west hold together.
Short term ( 12 -72 hr):
RDU remains in the trough through the short term. The strength of the trough weakens a bit and then restrengthens a bit later in the period likely due to some downstream assistance (if you will) from the much stronger trough in the upper plains. A weak low pressure is predicted by the GFS to form in South Carolina, weaken and then restrengthen over the Gulf Stream. Can't rule out a chance of showers and storms Friday afternoon and evening due to this weak surface low and some weak vorticity aloft. The upper air dynamics truly are weak though. It's difficult to tell whether or not RDU is truly in the left exit region of a jet or if my eyes are just seeing things. At this time I just don't see enough evidence to warrant and pops. Will go with slightly below persistent high for tomorrow due to some weak CAA along with residual cloud cover. Air will modify a bit on Friday.
Long term (Only if a legit major system is showing up):
Forecast:
Wednesday: Decreasing clouds with a high of 81. 20% chance of showers/storms tonight low of 61
Thursday: Partly cloudy high 79 low 59
Friday: Partly cloudy high 82 low 60
Review of RAH AFD: I said we were under the LE region of a jet which leads to subsidence. Just a mental mistake on my part as the LE leads to rising air, which I knew. Just not thinking clear this morning. I need to double check myself when typing stuff up. If I ever put something like that out in public I'd get called out big time by the weather nerds.
Sunday, September 6, 2009
Past day verification and analysis: High 89 Low 63 No precip - w/in one of the high and 2 of the low, so nothing unexpected.
Updates:
Synoptic Analysis: Seasonably warm weather today will give way to seasonable weather for the rest of the week. A weak area of low pressure along the coastal plain will provide a chance of showers on Monday and Tuesday.
Near term (12 hr): Today's forecast from yesterday looks fine. I don't see a reason to make any major changes. Will lower the low and go with persistence. Looks like little in the way of cloud cover tonight despite being under the left exit of a weak upper level jet.
Short term ( 12 -60 hr): A weak cold air damming high will continue to develop and basically stall in New England. Along with that a weak low pressure down stream of the trough... which may be some remnants from the Tropical Storm... will move north along the coastal plain Monday and Tuesday... therefore will bring in a chance of showers Monday night and Tuesday. qpf looks to be on the light side due to a significant lack of moisture. Soundings do become saturated 0z Monday with some light isentropic lift due to some lower level waa. I can't help but think that models may be underdoing the precip a bit even if the surface dynamics are weak. With winds just above the surface from off the coast am thinking there will be enough moisture to squeeze out a few showers at the very least. Both the GFS and the NAM keep the large majority of the precip centered near the surface low along the Carolina coast. The upper level low associated with this system is small in circumference bet packs a pretty decent punch in relation to its size. But lack of moisture looks to be the main issue. Expect temps to be around or slightly below climatology due to cloud cover. The forecast could change based on the location of the upper level low.
Long term (Beyond 60 hr):
The pattern looks to remain virtually the same with a weak damming high to the north and some weak impulses developing near the coast. Will go slight chance Thursday which is the only day the GFS spits out some precip for our region. Climatological temps through the extended.
Forecast:
Sunday afternoon: Partly Cloudy high 88
Sunday night: Mostly clear low 63
Monday: Mostly cloudy with a 50% chance of showers through the night. Precip around .1 inches High 82 Low 65
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a 50% chance of showers mainly before noon with a 30% chance form noon through the night. Precip around .1 inches High 82 Low 65
Wednesday: Decreasing clouds. High 83 low 65
Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers. High 83 Low 65
Friday: Partly cloudy. High 83 Low 65
Saturday: Partly cloudy. High 83 Low 65
Review of RAH AFD:
Updates:
Synoptic Analysis: Seasonably warm weather today will give way to seasonable weather for the rest of the week. A weak area of low pressure along the coastal plain will provide a chance of showers on Monday and Tuesday.
Near term (12 hr): Today's forecast from yesterday looks fine. I don't see a reason to make any major changes. Will lower the low and go with persistence. Looks like little in the way of cloud cover tonight despite being under the left exit of a weak upper level jet.
Short term ( 12 -60 hr): A weak cold air damming high will continue to develop and basically stall in New England. Along with that a weak low pressure down stream of the trough... which may be some remnants from the Tropical Storm... will move north along the coastal plain Monday and Tuesday... therefore will bring in a chance of showers Monday night and Tuesday. qpf looks to be on the light side due to a significant lack of moisture. Soundings do become saturated 0z Monday with some light isentropic lift due to some lower level waa. I can't help but think that models may be underdoing the precip a bit even if the surface dynamics are weak. With winds just above the surface from off the coast am thinking there will be enough moisture to squeeze out a few showers at the very least. Both the GFS and the NAM keep the large majority of the precip centered near the surface low along the Carolina coast. The upper level low associated with this system is small in circumference bet packs a pretty decent punch in relation to its size. But lack of moisture looks to be the main issue. Expect temps to be around or slightly below climatology due to cloud cover. The forecast could change based on the location of the upper level low.
Long term (Beyond 60 hr):
The pattern looks to remain virtually the same with a weak damming high to the north and some weak impulses developing near the coast. Will go slight chance Thursday which is the only day the GFS spits out some precip for our region. Climatological temps through the extended.
Forecast:
Sunday afternoon: Partly Cloudy high 88
Sunday night: Mostly clear low 63
Monday: Mostly cloudy with a 50% chance of showers through the night. Precip around .1 inches High 82 Low 65
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a 50% chance of showers mainly before noon with a 30% chance form noon through the night. Precip around .1 inches High 82 Low 65
Wednesday: Decreasing clouds. High 83 low 65
Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers. High 83 Low 65
Friday: Partly cloudy. High 83 Low 65
Saturday: Partly cloudy. High 83 Low 65
Review of RAH AFD:
Saturday, September 5, 2009
Saturday Sept 5
Past day verification and analysis:
Updates:
Synoptic Analysis: Seasonably warm and dry conditions will occur today. A slight cool down tomorrow will bring more seasonable temperatures and continued dry air. There will be a chance of showers by the middle of the week.
Near term (12 hr): The Triangle is down stream of an extremely positively tilted trough axis which stretches from southwest Texas NE into New England. This pattern has led to a surface high near the Great Lakes Region. The circulation around this high pressure has led an easterly wind at the surface. Soundings are dry and expect this to continue through the evening. 850 mb techniques in regards to surface temp seems reasonable due to decent mixing with partly cloudy skies through the day. This technique reveals highs around 90.
Short term ( 12 -60 hr):
The general patter continues. The trough does pinch off an upper level low which begins to shift east towards the end of the short term. A weak surface low develops off the coast down stream of the u shaped isobar arrangement east of the mountains. The setup looks like an extremely weak cold air damming set up. Will go with about persistence tomorrow and follow that up with seasonable conditions on Monday. Nam spits out some showers due to easterly flow around the weak low. GFS keeps things dry. I like the GFS solution for now although can't rule out some weak overrunning on Monday. Will just play it safe and go with chance shower on Monday and will reevaluate tomorrow. This won't be a major rain event so won't worry too much about getting it exactly right too early.
Long term (Beyond 60 hr):
The pattern basically remains the same through the extended. Will go with seasonable to seasonably cool conditions. Will keep things dry as well as the GFS struggles to produce precip due to dry air and stability. Again... can't rule out light overrunning event during the extended but I don't see anything that jumps out at me at this time.... therefore will stick with dry conditions.
Forecast:
Saturday afternoon: Partly cloudy with a high near 90
Saturday night: Partly cloudy Low 65
Sunday: Partly cloudy High 88 Low 66
Monday: Mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers High 89 Low 67
Tuesday: Partly Cloudy High 86 Low 65
Wednesday: Partly Cloudy High 85 Low 65
Thursday: Partly Cloudy High 81 Low 65
Friday: Partly Cloudy High 81 Low 65
Review of RAH AFD:
Updates:
Synoptic Analysis: Seasonably warm and dry conditions will occur today. A slight cool down tomorrow will bring more seasonable temperatures and continued dry air. There will be a chance of showers by the middle of the week.
Near term (12 hr): The Triangle is down stream of an extremely positively tilted trough axis which stretches from southwest Texas NE into New England. This pattern has led to a surface high near the Great Lakes Region. The circulation around this high pressure has led an easterly wind at the surface. Soundings are dry and expect this to continue through the evening. 850 mb techniques in regards to surface temp seems reasonable due to decent mixing with partly cloudy skies through the day. This technique reveals highs around 90.
Short term ( 12 -60 hr):
The general patter continues. The trough does pinch off an upper level low which begins to shift east towards the end of the short term. A weak surface low develops off the coast down stream of the u shaped isobar arrangement east of the mountains. The setup looks like an extremely weak cold air damming set up. Will go with about persistence tomorrow and follow that up with seasonable conditions on Monday. Nam spits out some showers due to easterly flow around the weak low. GFS keeps things dry. I like the GFS solution for now although can't rule out some weak overrunning on Monday. Will just play it safe and go with chance shower on Monday and will reevaluate tomorrow. This won't be a major rain event so won't worry too much about getting it exactly right too early.
Long term (Beyond 60 hr):
The pattern basically remains the same through the extended. Will go with seasonable to seasonably cool conditions. Will keep things dry as well as the GFS struggles to produce precip due to dry air and stability. Again... can't rule out light overrunning event during the extended but I don't see anything that jumps out at me at this time.... therefore will stick with dry conditions.
Forecast:
Saturday afternoon: Partly cloudy with a high near 90
Saturday night: Partly cloudy Low 65
Sunday: Partly cloudy High 88 Low 66
Monday: Mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers High 89 Low 67
Tuesday: Partly Cloudy High 86 Low 65
Wednesday: Partly Cloudy High 85 Low 65
Thursday: Partly Cloudy High 81 Low 65
Friday: Partly Cloudy High 81 Low 65
Review of RAH AFD:
Wednesday, September 2, 2009
Wednesday 9/2
Past day verification and analysis: It's never felt so good to be wrong. I predicted a typical cold air damming day with drizzle and cool conditions. Instead we had clear skies with a deep blue sky, crisp air and seasonably cool temperatures. It was a perfect early fall day. High: 79 Low: 57
Updates:
Synoptic Analysis: Mostly cloudy skies will persist today along with dry and seasonably cool conditions. The weather will remain seasonable and dry through the extended.
Near term (12 hr): The triangle is under the entrance region of an upper level jet. This jet will shift NW through the day placing Raleigh under the right entrance region. This along with a deepening trough to the west will provide upper level support... however dry air due to a surface high to the north is prevalent in the mid and lower levels... therefore pops will remain at zero. Cloud cover will keep radiational cooling to a minimum. Will go with very slightly less than persistance for high due to cloudiness and and warmer than persistence for the low due to the same reasoning.
Short term ( 12 -60 hr): The basic pattern will persist through the short term... however toward the end RH values increase and a very weak broad surface low develops off the cost. The best 500 mb support stays to the east and RH around 500 mb stays low... As of now expect precip to remain along and off the coast. Will go with dry and seasonable conditions through the period. Temps will warm a bit near the end of the forecast period due to a southerly surface wind along with week waa... do expect mostly cloudy conditions to occur through the period due to remaining below the right entrance region of the weak upper jet streak and down stream of the trough... This same trough will likely have a big impact on the steering of Tropical Storm Erica in the long term...
Long term (Beyond 60 hr):
Forecast:
Wednesday afternoon: Another nice fall day with variable clouds: High 78
Wednesday night: Variable clouds: Low 61
Thursday: Partly to mostly cloudy skies High 80 Low 62
Friday: Partly to mostly cloudy skies High 82 Low 63
Saturday:
Sunday:
Monday
Tuesday:
Review of RAH AFD:
Updates:
Synoptic Analysis: Mostly cloudy skies will persist today along with dry and seasonably cool conditions. The weather will remain seasonable and dry through the extended.
Near term (12 hr): The triangle is under the entrance region of an upper level jet. This jet will shift NW through the day placing Raleigh under the right entrance region. This along with a deepening trough to the west will provide upper level support... however dry air due to a surface high to the north is prevalent in the mid and lower levels... therefore pops will remain at zero. Cloud cover will keep radiational cooling to a minimum. Will go with very slightly less than persistance for high due to cloudiness and and warmer than persistence for the low due to the same reasoning.
Short term ( 12 -60 hr): The basic pattern will persist through the short term... however toward the end RH values increase and a very weak broad surface low develops off the cost. The best 500 mb support stays to the east and RH around 500 mb stays low... As of now expect precip to remain along and off the coast. Will go with dry and seasonable conditions through the period. Temps will warm a bit near the end of the forecast period due to a southerly surface wind along with week waa... do expect mostly cloudy conditions to occur through the period due to remaining below the right entrance region of the weak upper jet streak and down stream of the trough... This same trough will likely have a big impact on the steering of Tropical Storm Erica in the long term...
Long term (Beyond 60 hr):
Forecast:
Wednesday afternoon: Another nice fall day with variable clouds: High 78
Wednesday night: Variable clouds: Low 61
Thursday: Partly to mostly cloudy skies High 80 Low 62
Friday: Partly to mostly cloudy skies High 82 Low 63
Saturday:
Sunday:
Monday
Tuesday:
Review of RAH AFD:
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