Both the GFS and the NAM continue to strengthen the southern energy associated with the storm, as well as phase the storm a bit sooner then earlier depicted. This is likely due to a small piece of energy shooting due south out of the Dakotas. This is causing the northern stream to catch up with the the stronger then earlier depicted southern energy. The RUC appears to be supporting this scenario as well. Even the NAM... which is further east and eventually out to sea... depicts warning criteria snow for the triangle. I need to see what the HPC says about any initialization errors... but right now I think at least a blending of the NAM and GFS makes sense. Will go ahead and up totals to reflect my earlier forecast. Taken literally the NAM is about 7" while the GFS is over 10"... It's the support of the RUC in keeping the southern vort strong that has me thinking the GFS may be on to something.
The snow/rain mix should start late Saturday afternoon with the bulk of accumulating snow falling at overnight/Sunday morning.
Right now I'll go with 3 - 7 inches for the triangle... maybe a bit more conservative for Emporia and Williamsburg at 2-6 inches.
Forecast confidence is still rather low and the storm has the potential to produce around a foot of snow.
I'll update again late tonight at around 11 or so after the next suite of models comes in.
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