12/14 update for upcoming systems

12/16 storm:

As of now most of the moisture will be north of the triangle. NAM shows quite a bit of precip extending well out ahead of the surface low. Precip could start out as snow for an our or two before transitioning over to sleet and finally to rain. This looks like it will mainly be a light rain event based on soundings and lack of cold air aloft at approximately H85. Any frozen precip should stick and stay on the ground through rush hour so the morning commute could be troublesome if the precip arrives before the warm air aloft. With this in mind it is important to iterate that the warm air will be located aloft. Therefore expect surface temps to remain an issue until around lunch time.

The biggest issue with this storm is precip amount. Neither the GFS or NAM are showing much at all for the triangle. Most of the precip is to the north. Only .10 to .2 of an inch for the whole event is being shown by both models. Temps may be ok Thursday morning, but the lack of precip makes that irrelevant.

This could be a more significant event if the precip shield and associated dynamics shift significantly south. But as of now a chance of snow between 2-5 am Wed night transition to sleet and then to rain at around noon. This may not be a big snow event but sleet and freezing rain could be an issue during the Thursday morning commute. While this doesn't appear to be a major event at this time, you never know what can happen.

I do think there could be some accumulation and a winter weather advisory will maybe be issued by the NWS... sleet will be the predominant frozen precip type.


12/18 to 12/19 storm:

Potential for a major winter storm.. GFS and Euro coming into closer agreement on a potential major winter storm for the east coast. Cold air concerns exist with this storm due to a relatively weak surface high providing cold air ahead of the arrival of the surface low, which is predicted to track somewhere near or off the North Carolina coast. The Euro is beginning to show a more amplified with the gfs already showing a well amplified system which will undertake bombogenesis as it moves up the coast. This could be a historic blizzard for parts of New England if the GFS continues to amplify the sytem.

This type of set up has led to major snowfalls for the triangle. It's similar to the January 2-3 2002 winter storm which dropped a foot of snow in the triangle, but with one major difference. The strength of the parent high over the midwest is weaker. But the high over the midwest for the future system is a piece of a strong canadian high pressure and expect the low pressure to advect cold air from the north as it starts to move up the coast.

The bottom line is that the triangle could be in a position to get dumped on by the deformation band associated with this system. Several hours of heavy snow fall is possible. This will definitely be a storm to keep an eye on.