The latest model run show the system phasing late in the game and thus showing a weaker surface feature as well as a more eastern track.
The GFS and ECMWF are now in decent agreement with the surface features. The NAM is too suppressed.. will just throw that out for now.
Things can definitely still change... and in a dramatic way. If the system is a bit stronger and a bit closer to the coast, we could go from advisory criteria snow to a much more significant event. Will lower totals or the triangle to advisory criteria for now. Looking at an all snow event here with decent ratios should warrant at least 2 inches as of now. Will lower totals to reflect both Advisory and warning criteria potential. I may lower the totals tonight if the east trend continues but for now will just slowly taper back snow amounts. This is still a very fluid situation:
Christmas Day: A chance of snow after noon. Little or no accumulation expected
Christmas night: Snow likely. 1-4 inches of snow possible
Sunday: A chance of light snow before lunch. Little or no accumulation expected.
1-4 inches possible for the triangle.... 1-2 inches possible for Emporia
At this time a significant winter storm for the triangle is looking much less likely.
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