The GFS and ECMWF have some major difference in the amplification of the system. The GFS closes the upper low over the lakes which helps to shear out the surface low in the deep south while ECMWF has the low bombing off the carolina coast. GFS is also a bit quicker with the system, and while it is mostly slow, it does not have much precip associated with it. A 1-3 inch snowfall is likely if the GFS is correct.
The ECMWF is a historic snow storm for most of North Carolina with over a foot possible in the triangle. The historic nature of this storm makes this scenario unlikely... however... with a strong parent high in a decent location (in the northeast quadrant of the great lakes) and supporting upper level dynamics... the ECMWF is a realistic scenario. Still pretty far out in advance of this storm and a more westerly track could even mean mostly rain or ice for the triangle. If the GFS pans out then could see just a minor snow storm. The GFS does seem to be trending toward the ECMWF which has been consistent the past 2 runs. Just to stress the historic nature of the current ECMWF run. It shows about 24 hours of snow, heavy at times, with very high winds... this would be a blizzard for the triangle.
There are legit reasons to support either model run right now, therefore will not support one with confidence this early in the forecast period. Instead I will just mention the incredibly large spread in my forecast to show how difficult it can be to forecast this far out:
Christmas Day: Occasional Snow... especially after noon, but maybe moreso before noon. The snow could be heavy at times or it may stay rather light. Total accumulations of 1 to 8 inches possible
Christmas night: Snow... or no snow. Total accumulation of 0 - 12 inches possible
Sunday: Frigid with a chance of snow in the morning.. Total of accumulation of 0-3 inches possible.
Total storm accumulation of 1-23 inches possible.
Final note: At this time the HPC does favor the ECMWF model, but just a bit weaker which would still likely be a blizzard scenario for the Triangle, but not quite as historic.
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