Christmas night storm update:

Huge mess this afternoon.

The GFS came in much wetter laying down 6-10 inches of snow throughout central/eastern north carolina and southern Virginia. This is after showing maybe 1-3 inches at best in the last several runs. This is in disagreement with the NAM, which shows the surface pressure remaining open and broad and the upper features remaining positively tilted as the surface feature ascends up the Atlantic coast. HPC has stated that there were some initialization errors in both models, which is not good at all this late in the game. This is due to a shortwave disturbance in South Dakota... the models have not handled this feature well. HPC suggests to use 6z and 0z data to make the forecast, which is only slightly helpful. ECMWF is not a good short term model and seems to be struggling with short term conditions.

Will have to wait until the 18z models come in to adjust my forecast, but may have to adjust to warning criteria.