Wed. 8/26 Forecast

Past day verification and analysis: NA

Synoptic analysis:

Closed upper level low low pressure currently located over the deep south along with a surface high over the southern Apps will lead to dry warm conditions through today and into tonight.

Near term (12 hr):

A strong upper level low is centered near Mississippi. HPC has drawn a pair of high pressures along the southern Appalachians. These 2 features have combined to form subsidence leading to a warm dry environment. The air above 650 mb is extremely dry which can be seen on water vapor and current soundings out of GSO. Expect this pattern to continue through the night. Cloud cover over night should be minimal due to the subsidence and dry air. Also, expect the inversion layer to keep surface winds relatively calm.

Short term ( 12 -36 hr):

The warm dry pattern will continue in the short term with the upper level low slowly shifting eastward. However... models show a weak impulse entering the forecast region at around 0z Friday... which should enhance shower chances Friday. Moisture levels are marginal and neither the NAM nor the GFS are bullish with QPF so will go with only summer climatological chances for Friday afternoon. CAPE and associated convection appear to be limited due to afternoon cloud cover Friday afternoon. This implies surface temps on Friday will be lower then persistance by several degrees. If cloud cover is not a factor on Friday then expect a good chance of afternoon thunderstorms.

Long term (Beyond 36 hr):

The long term starts out messy as the upper level low shifts east and interacts with Tropical Storm Danny. NHC currently predicts Danny to move just off the North Carolina shore. CCW winds around Danny could interact with SW winds along a surface low in Tennessee.... which could create a zone of convergence Saturday afternoon... moisture is limited however. Will go chance PoPs Saturday afternoon. A closed low will set up later in the forecast period as Danny exits the region. The associated trough will deepen... expect impulses to ride along this trough enhancing the chances for precip later in the weekend and into early next week. The trough will hold on but dampen as the middle of the week nears. The timing of these impulses are anyones guess in the long range. A cold front will come through sometime during the day on Monday. After this a relatively strong high pressure will build in from the west. Will stick with chance pops through Monday with partly cloudy skies on Sunday. Highs will be slightly below climatology due to expected cloud cover associated with any impulses.

Forecast:

Wed night: Clear with a low around 70

Thursday: Sunny and hot.. High 95 low near 70

Friday: 30% chance of storms.. precip less than .1 inches.. High 85 Low 69

Saturday: 30% chance of storms.. precip less than .1 inches.. High 85 low 70

Sunday: 30% chance of afternoon storms.. precip less than .1 inches.. High 82 low 70

Monday: 30% chance of afternoon storms.. precip less than .1 inches.. High 82 low 70

Tuesday: Partly Sunny.. High 82 low 70