Past day verification and analysis:

Updates:
9:16 PM: Upped chances tonight due to precip associated with the northern book end line echo moving up from the south. May lower precip amounts tomorrow based on 0z models. 6z GFS weakens 850 low and centers it south of the area... will wait and see if that trend continues... still expecting a heavy band of precip to set up near the 850 low but may weaken as it moves through the triangle. Expect this band to move through tomorrow morning through lunch.

10:45 PM: 0z NAM has weaker 850 low (compared to GFS) passing very close to the triangle... The NAM actually squeezes out a good 1.25 inches qpf but in a relatively small area. Error margin is pretty and confidence of exact location of heaviest rain is not high. Rain total could be anywhere from .25 to 1.5 inches qpf based on strength and location of 850 low. I'm not staying up for the GFS so will just leave wording as is... but will mention rain mostly occuring in the morning.

Synoptic Analysis:

Cloudy and seasonably cool conditions will persist through the afternoon and early evening. A steady rain and unseasonably cool weather is likely on Monday with chances of scattered showers lasting through the middle of the week. Dry and seasonable conditions will occur at the end of the week.

Near term (12 hr): Will lessen chance of storms for today. Surface front has just passed the region. GSO sounding reveals backing and a mid level capping inversion. Expect CAPE values to remain low despite a good chance for some breaks in the cloud by mid afternoon. NAM sim radar keep precip to our south east where cloud cover is much left prevalent... and where the front has yet to pass. Mechanism for ascent will remain toward our southwest today and this evening. Some elevated convection does exist behind the front and more of this could pop up this afternoon. Temps will be slow to cool as is usually the case. Will go with below climatological chance pops for the afternoon for risk of elevated storms with chance pops late night as the synoptic plays a bigger role.



Short term ( 12 -60 hr):

A low pressure will begin to strengthen slightly and move northeast across North Carolina. Warm air out ahead of this low pressure will surge over cold air provided by a surface high over the great lakes. Expect cold air to dam into the region at the surface. Isentropic upglide will be a primary mechanism for ascent in what looks to be a fairly wide spread precip event to the N and NE of the low level vorticity. The speed and location of the low will determine how much precip falls in Cary. NAM doesn't really seem to be picking up on any damming so will lean toward the GFS which shows us to be in the right entrance region of an upper level jet. The GFS also has the 850mb low traveling directly over the region thus enhancing the precip. This setup looks to dump some significant precip. Tough call on the exact location but will put it all out there and call for an inch. MUCAPE will be limited but isolated thunder is possible. Despite decent shear and helicity severe weather is unlikely due to low CAPE. Conditions will remain cold air damming like after the rain moves through. Drizzly... cool.. cloudy


Long term (Beyond 60 hr):

The high in the NE will begin to weaken and open up and most of the cloudiness will exit the area... however.. the pattern will remain seasonably cool.. but dry



Forecast:

Sunday afternoon: 20% chance of storms this afternoon. precip < .1 inch High 83

Sunday night: 80% chance of showers and storms. Low 70

Monday: 90% chance of rain mainly in the morning. 50% chance overnight. About an inch of precip High 68 Low 65

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers (40%). precip <.1 High 77 Low 62

Wednesday: Mostly sunny high 81 low 61

Thursday (Gameday!): Mostly sunny high 80 Low 61

Friday: Partly cloudy high 80 low 63

Saturday: Partly cloudy high 85 low 68

Review of RAH AFD: RAH believe 850 low is too strong as represented by the GFS... therefore... they went with less qpf. It will be interesting to find out who is right on this one. I mentioned front earlier but I should've mentioned it stalling on the coast.