1/3/2018 snow event

Snow accumulations look more likely for the triangle. A strong low pressure system will move NNE along the gulf stream Wednesday afternoon through the evening. Very cold dry air will be in place over central North Carolina. It is expect that warm moist air will ride up over the cold dry air potentially leading to winter weather advisor to winter storm warning snowfall possibility. The questions of the placement of the low and strength of the low will be critical in the amount of snowfall. Also, the ability of the precipitation to overcome the very dry air and actually reach the ground will play a major role in amounts.

I think as of now we're looking at .5 - 2 inches for Western Wake County, Orange County and Durham County. Eastern Wake County is more likely to get 2-3 inches. Keep in mind that the precip rate cut off will be very sharp.

This will be a very strong storm, and it's possible the models are not quite picking up on the intensity of the wrap around precip. The HiRes models are showing signficant amounts of snow for most of the triangle. This is certainly a possibility as a models don't have much data in regards to winter storms this intense at this latitude.

Any snow that falls will stick as the ground temperature is very cold.