Winter storm update

NWS went ahead and issued the winter storm warning for the triangle, which is not surprising given the possibility of significant ice accumulations. The forecast basically remains unchanged with the latest RUC data coming in.

Already some flurries flying in the Cary area. More moderate snow is expected to begin falling in the triangle between noon and 2 PM and expected to possibly begin mixing sometime shortly after or around sunset. Around an inch of accumulation is possible with a max of 3 inches if the changeover occurs later than expected or precip falls heavier then expect. But in general I really only expect around an inch in the triangle. The problem is going to be overnight after the precip mix with sleet and eventually changes over to freezing rain through Tuesday morning. The potential for significant icing accumulation exist. I think up to a third of an inch of ice accumulation is not out of the question in some sweet spots. Using the Piltz - Sperry index shows that due to a lack of high winds utility lines should not be in danger however, road conditions could be quite bad Tuesday morning especially on bridges and overpasses.

So expect the potential for accumulating snow to begin after noon and last through the daylight hours and mixing w/ sleet and changing to sleet shortly after or around sunset. A quick changeover to freezing rain is likey by midnight with freezing drizzle lasting through lunch time on Tuesday.

.1 - .33 inches of ice accumulation are likely on top of potentially around an inch of snow/sleet w/ a max in some spots of 3 inches.

At this point the confidence is higher in the ice accumulation then the snow accumulation potential.