I was able to look at the vertical thermal profiles for tonight's event looking at several model runs, and came to conclusion that mixing is going to be too much of an issue for this to be much of anything significant.
Therefore I'm only predicting less than an inch for the Raleigh area due to a Snow/rain mix tonight. Snow is more likely when the precip is heavier.
Info on early next weeks system:
On Sunday/Monday a southern stream system will move along the northern gulf coast and eventually become sheared as it nears the east coast of Florida. This system will drop significant snow and ice in central and northern MS, AL and GA. While this system is wreaking havoc in those areas northern stream energy will begin to enter the region from the west Monday night.
This energy will merge with the sheared out and weakened southern stream system and lead to surface developement off the southeast coast. This surface feature will be much weaker than the last system however, it will be much slow to exit the area. Because of this expect a sustained period of light precip, all of which will be frozen. A feature out west will also lead to warm air advection in the upper levels which will lead to an above freezing layer. This will be after a period of snow has already fallen over the triangle. However at that time surface temps will be struggling to get out of the upper 20's.
All of that leads to this initial forecast:
Monday afternoon: A slight chance of snow
Monday night: A chance of snow possibly mixed with sleet.. changing to sleet after midnight before quickly changing over to freezing rain
Tuesday: Light freezing rain through the afternoon.
Total snow/sleet accumulations of 1-3 inches possible with around 1/8 - 1/4 inch of ice accrual possible.
That forecast would like be enough to warrant a winter storm warning for the triangle.
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