Potential for snow to begin falling Monday afternoon across the region. At this time snow accumulation appears light. NAM has the snowfall inching further north with each new model run, but keeps a dry layer near/in the boundary layer. If this boundary layer moistens unlike what the NAM is showing then a signifcant snow event would occur over the triangle. The latest NAM actually only allows about an hour of accumulating snow to fall after sunset before quickly transitioning the precip over to sleet or "heavy" freezing drizzle.
Imo, the worst case scenario is what the NAM is showing where the triangle picks up a good half an inch liquid equivalent of "heavy" freezing drizzle. This worst case scenario is looking more likely for the triangle. Hopefully the lift will shift a bit northward enough to moisten the entire column and put the triangle in an all snow event.
Expect more precip in Cary and less in NE Raleigh with Cary picking up maybe half an inch in liquid and NE Raleigh picking up maybe 1/3 of an inch.
Monday: A chance of snow after noon. Snow accumulation of around an inch possible
Monday night: Snow changing sleet quickly changing to freezing drizzle. It could be a "heavy" drizzle, if that makes sense, which would coat everything in a fairly thick layer of ice.
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