3/2 - 3/3 snowfall update

I've felt that models were underdoing precip a bit with this system and the latest guidance is starting to suggest I may be right. The upper level dynamics with this system are pretty good and combine that with a strong and well positioned surface low... I'm having a tough time believing that this won't result in a band of very heavy precip somewhere over the eastern piedmont/coastal plain. I think any thermal issues in the boundary layer over the piedmont would be overcome by this heavy band, but there may still be issues over the coastal plain.. although with rates of up to 2-3 inches per hour I think temp issues will even be overcome in this region.

Models struggled to pick up the precip during the Carolina Crusher in January of 2000... And now they are starting to catch on to a strong... what we in the business call... deformation band to the west of the surface low... The potential exists for amounts close to 20 inches in the jackpot zone depending upon when, where and if this band develops. Look for a tight gradient in amounts... much like January 2000. Here's a look at the snowfall map with this storm. Right now this heavy band looks to be further east... so I'm not saying we will see these snowfall amts and especially at this location. But I do think a tight band of snow like the one shown below could develop. We will have some solar issues since this is March after all... so even if precip is heavy expect totals to be lessened a bit... I'll check the models later today to get a better idea where this band of heavy snow could develop... if it does... although I think it will.