12z NAM model run is out and it does show the deformation band moving through the triangle between around midnight and sun rise. This band will likely contain a 5-6 hour period of moderate to heavy at times precip. This would likely be all snow for the triangle at the time the deform band moves through. 6-9 inches could be possible. Surface temps and a chance of precip issues could negate this total as presented by the NAM in liquid equivalency. Surface temps could be slightly above freezing through the event... Most if not all accumulation will be on grassy surfaces. Expect any snow accum on roadways to melt quickly on Wedns morning. But again I expect most accum. will be on grassy surfaces. Although with the timing and potential intensity of the event I do think we'll see accumulation on most everything else. The best chance for accumulation snow will be between midnight and 6 am. Before midnight we probably won't see much snow if any at all. It will be mostly rain before that time. The local NWS office in Raleigh has been putting more stock in the NAM... and I've felt that the models were underperforming on the deformation band... therefore I do think the NAM is onto something here.
I'll check the 12z GFS along with the soundings (vertical profile of the atmosphere)... Hopefully the GFS will come into agreement with the NAM and show this band of precip.
I'll make my first forecast this afternoon. T
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment