Classic setup for a major southeastern winter storm looking more likely. A low pressure system associated with a moist southern jet will enter the continental US soon. This low pressure will move east into Texas and move into the Alabama/Mississippi coast. At the same time a fairly strong high pressure will strengthen as a polar vorticity move southeast toward the great lakes. The high pressure will spread its energy from the midwest through the great lakes. This will set up a classical cold air damming scenario with a strengthening high to the north. The low pressure will then move east/northeast off the coast of North Carolina bringing the potential of significant overrunning precipitation.
Quick model rundown: The NAM is the furthest north with a more liquid scenario. This model is an outlier. The long term of the NAM is known to have issues, therefore will through this model out for now.
The ECMWF is much further south and suggest an all snow event for the triangle. This model is extreme, yet is supported by most other models in regards to the more southern path
The GFS is in between the ECMWF and the NAM but leans much closer to the ECMWF. GFS bufkit shows a snow/sleet scenario for the triangle. Will lean toward a balance between these 2 models. Also.... will lean more toward snow as this is a pretty classic setup for an RDU snowfall... but most winter events in North Carolina contain a mix of precip. This will be borderline in regards to temps near the 850 level.. however surface temps will likely stay below freezing throughout the event..
With that in mind... Things can certainly change.
Friday afternoon: A chance of light snow
Friday night: Snow and sleet likely
Saturday: Snow likely
No amounts yet... too early
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Bubbas!
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