Wednesday, January 27, 2010

Friday night/ Saturday winter storm update

Basic forecast idea will remain unchanged. GFS and ECMWF keeps the low further south than the NAM and keep it virtually an all snow event with some sleet mixing in late Friday night/Early Saturday morning. NAM has much more precip but looks to be a bit over amplified. The key will be to track the 850 mb frontogenesis. Expect heavy snow bands to set up along and north of the 850ish mb low.

Will go with GFS/ECMWF blend as far as first call amounts...

Friday - 30% chance of light snow. Accumulation of less than an inch

Friday night - Snow mixed with sleet. 4-7 inches accumulation possible

Saturday - Snow mainly in the morning possibly mixed with sleet. 2-4 inch accumulations possible.

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