Still not a very good picture on snow accumulations. This still looks like mainly a snow/sleet storm with up to 1.5 inches of liquid equivalent possible.
Here are what the soundings for the airport are saying:
NAM has now beginning between 11:30 and midnight via bufkit... all snow through noon... mixing with sleet between 12PM and 2 PM... changing to sleet after 2 PM.. back to snow after 8:00 PM... Most of the precip falls before lunch time.
GFS has a relatively deep isothermal layer between 700 mb and 850 mb are so between 5:00 AM and 8:00 AM. Due to potentially high precip rates I still think this would be mostly snow. We could see some sleet mix kick in around 10:00 AM with a change to all sleet no later than noon... back to snow by around 6:00 PM
I'll just use a combo of these 2 to make my forecast:
Friday night: Snow... mainly after midnight
Saturday: Snow possibly mixed with sleet between 7:00AM and 11:00 AM. Snow/sleet mix between 11:00AM and 1:00 PM... Sleet between 1:00 PM and 7:00 PM...
Saturday night: Light snow decreasing to flurries later...
As of right now it looks like most of the precip will fall as snow at RDU... Some more sleet may mix in and the change over may be earlier to the south and the east.
The snow amount prediction is of very low confidence right now... Expect 6-12 inches over much of the triangle. Closer to 6 inches on the very southern and eastern regions. This would place Cary and North Raleigh at about 8-10 inches.
But again... the snow/sleet line will be influenced by mesoscale features which are very difficult to predict.
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