1/16 - 1/17 2018 Snow event

A strong upper level storm system will move into the are Tuesday night and through the day on Wednesday. The strength of the system is dependent on how strong the accompanying surface features are with the storm. It's unusual for an event that is mainly dependent on upper level disturbances to provide a lot of snow for the triangle. I am not very bullish on the amount of snow because of this fact, but it does appear likely that at least some accumulating snow will fall. I will wait until later today before I detail potential amounts.

1/3/2018 snow event update

Light to moderate snow is possible after 4pm today for the triangle region and continuing into tonight. The best chances of snow will be between 9 PM and 2 AM. 

Around a half an inch to an inch is expected in the western part of the triangle, which includes Chapel Hill, Durham and Cary while the eastern parts of the triangle could see 1-2 inches. 

There is still a small chance that the weather models are not depicting the westward expanse of precipitation well. Therefore, it is still possible for more moderate snowfall than anticipated which could dump 3-5 inches over the triangle. But that is still a remote possibility at this time.

1/3/2018 snow event

Snow accumulations look more likely for the triangle. A strong low pressure system will move NNE along the gulf stream Wednesday afternoon through the evening. Very cold dry air will be in place over central North Carolina. It is expect that warm moist air will ride up over the cold dry air potentially leading to winter weather advisor to winter storm warning snowfall possibility. The questions of the placement of the low and strength of the low will be critical in the amount of snowfall. Also, the ability of the precipitation to overcome the very dry air and actually reach the ground will play a major role in amounts.

I think as of now we're looking at .5 - 2 inches for Western Wake County, Orange County and Durham County. Eastern Wake County is more likely to get 2-3 inches. Keep in mind that the precip rate cut off will be very sharp.

This will be a very strong storm, and it's possible the models are not quite picking up on the intensity of the wrap around precip. The HiRes models are showing signficant amounts of snow for most of the triangle. This is certainly a possibility as a models don't have much data in regards to winter storms this intense at this latitude.

Any snow that falls will stick as the ground temperature is very cold.

1/6-1/7 major winter storm update

There are no significant changes to the forecast. Models are in better agreement now on potential accumulations for the triangle. The national weather service essentially calls for 6-10 inches for the triangle. Listed below are three most likely snow/sleet accumulation probabilities associated with this storm. 

-10% chance 1-3 inches of snow/sleet accumulation.

-80% chance 5-10 inches of snow/sleet accumulation.

-10% chance 10-12 inches of snow/sleet accumulation.

Northern sections of the triangle are more likely to see the higher end of the accumulation forecast. What could go wrong with the forecast? The changeover from sleet to snow could take longer than forecast which would significantly cut back on accumulations. However, even in that scenario the triangle should still see 1-4 inches of snow.

1/6 - 1/7 2017 Winter Storm

A significant winter storm is likely to impact the triangle Friday night through Saturday afternoon.  A mix of rain, sleet and snow will begin Friday evening and eventually changing to all snow by around midnight. The snow could be heavy at times, particularly for the far eastern portions of the triangle. Sleet could mix in a bit longer than anticipated, which could greatly cut down on accumulations. Also, the heaviest axis of snowfall is going to be relatively narrow, so if the low pressure were to travel 50-100 miles north or south of the anticipated location then the forecast could bust. As of right now there is decent agreement in the models that the heaviest accumulations will occur in a line from Charlotte through the triangle to southeast Virginia. 8-12 inches of snow is possible where the heaviest axis of snow sets up. The best chance for 12 inches will be on the east side of the heavy snow band. Here is my current forecast for the triangle:

Friday Night: rain, sleet and snow changing to all snow by midnight.  Accumulation of 2-5 inches possible.

Saturday: Snow mainly in the morning. Another 3-4 inches of snow possible. Snow will be ending from west to east.  Expect higher accumulation in the northeast portion of the triangle.

Confidence level of the triangle seeing > 4 inches of snow is 60%

1/22 - 1/23 Winter Storm update

Just a few changes to the initial forecasts for RDU increasing snow/sleet amounts and delaying the switch over to rain.

Friday:  Snow and sleet after 6:00 AM, changing to sleet/freezing rain by mid afternoon.  2-6 inches of snow/sleet possible with around .25 inches of ice accrual possible.

Friday night: Freezing rain possibly changing to rain at around 8 PM, but back to freezing rain/drizzle by 2:00 AM.  An additional .25 inches of ice accrual possible

Saturday through Saturday night:  Freezing drizzle becoming snow showers after 10 AM.  The snow showers will pick up in intensity by lunch time with another 1-3 inches of accumulation possible. Snow ends shortly after midnight.

This winter storm looks like it will be very similar to a winter storm that impacted the southeast in 1996.  Here's a look at the impacts from that storm:

Expect some differences because no two storms are the same but this should give an idea of where the heaviest snow accumulations will likely be and the areas that are most likely to see ice.  I think we might see more ice from this upcoming storm in especially the southwest parts of the light blue shading.