2:00 2/10/14 Update

All of the major models are in agreement that a significant winter storm will impact the triangle on Wednesday through Wednesday night.  The timing and precip type is still yet to be determined.  

As of now I believe precip will begin to fall sometime after noon on Wednesday.  It will likely fall as snow and quickly mix with sleet.  I believe that during the evening it will change to a sleet and freezing rain mix.  Snow/sleet accumulations of about 1-3 inches are possible with half and inch to one inch of ice accrual.  It is also still possible that the freezing rain could change over to rain early Thursday morning, although this scenario appears unlikely at this time.  Expect the precip to end as snow or drizzle.

It is also possible that some snow could fall Tuesday afternoon and evening however, as of now it appears the majority of the precip on Tuesday and Tuesday night will be south of the triangle. 

Here are the three scenarios and the likelihood they each could occur.  This is for the Wednesday afternoon/Wednesday night time frame.

Most likely:  Snow/Sleet changing to Freezing Rain.  1-3 inches sleet/snow and significant ice accumulation possible.

Less likely:  Snow/sleet changing to sleet/freezing rain late Wednesday night.  3-5 inches of snow/sleet but less ice accrual.

Least likely:  Sleet changing to freezing rain and then changing to rain late Wednesday night.  Signficant ice accumulation possible before the change over to rain.