1/6-1/7 major winter storm update

There are no significant changes to the forecast. Models are in better agreement now on potential accumulations for the triangle. The national weather service essentially calls for 6-10 inches for the triangle. Listed below are three most likely snow/sleet accumulation probabilities associated with this storm. 

-10% chance 1-3 inches of snow/sleet accumulation.

-80% chance 5-10 inches of snow/sleet accumulation.

-10% chance 10-12 inches of snow/sleet accumulation.

Northern sections of the triangle are more likely to see the higher end of the accumulation forecast. What could go wrong with the forecast? The changeover from sleet to snow could take longer than forecast which would significantly cut back on accumulations. However, even in that scenario the triangle should still see 1-4 inches of snow.

1/6 - 1/7 2017 Winter Storm

A significant winter storm is likely to impact the triangle Friday night through Saturday afternoon.  A mix of rain, sleet and snow will begin Friday evening and eventually changing to all snow by around midnight. The snow could be heavy at times, particularly for the far eastern portions of the triangle. Sleet could mix in a bit longer than anticipated, which could greatly cut down on accumulations. Also, the heaviest axis of snowfall is going to be relatively narrow, so if the low pressure were to travel 50-100 miles north or south of the anticipated location then the forecast could bust. As of right now there is decent agreement in the models that the heaviest accumulations will occur in a line from Charlotte through the triangle to southeast Virginia. 8-12 inches of snow is possible where the heaviest axis of snow sets up. The best chance for 12 inches will be on the east side of the heavy snow band. Here is my current forecast for the triangle:

Friday Night: rain, sleet and snow changing to all snow by midnight.  Accumulation of 2-5 inches possible.

Saturday: Snow mainly in the morning. Another 3-4 inches of snow possible. Snow will be ending from west to east.  Expect higher accumulation in the northeast portion of the triangle.

Confidence level of the triangle seeing > 4 inches of snow is 60%