Tuesday, February 24, 2015

2/25-2/26 winter storm update.

No change to my previous thinking.  I still think 3-5 inches is a safe forecast at this time.  I do think there will be a relatively narrow band of heavy snow set up close to the rain/snow line.  It does look like the heavy snow band could set up over the triangle area into northeast North Carolina.  But it's too early to tell for certain.  But I would be surprised at this point if we did get less than three inches.  The GFS is the least wet, but has been trending wetter with each run.  The European model seems like the best bet, but is likely missing some convective banding features with this storm.  Get under one of these bands and you could pick up 2-3 inches in an hour.  I expect there to be a swath of 6+ inch snowfall setting up on a SE to NE line somewhere near the Highway 64 corridor.  Higher resolution models will be able to pick up on the banding, but those only go out to 18 hours.


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