November 09 heavy rain event

Potential historic rainfall event beginning this afternoon and lasting through mid week. Upwards of 5-7 inches could around and east of the triangle.

Moderate to heavy rain will begin later this afternoon into this evening as isentropic lift increases. Radar trends show showers already near the region. Expect these showers to increase in coverage and intensity as the right entrance region of an upper jet moves over the triangle region later this afternoon and through the night. The potential exists for one to two inches overnight as this feature moves through. Very slight lull in the heavy and widespread precip looks to occur tomorrow morning however, the rain will reintinsify Wednesday afternoon and through the night. In fact it appears that this has the potential to be the heaviest period of rain potentially dropping up to to 2 inches in a single 6 hour period Wednesday evening. This is due to a strong 500 mb vort max along with the emergence of the coastal low. This coastal low will continue to deepen due to strong diabatic influences and could deepen more than models are predicting. GFS predicts the precip to stick around through the day on Thursday despite the advance of cool dry air from the NW. It will be a figurative battle in regards to which air mass wins out... either the dry continental air or the moist tropical air. NAM finally starting to come into agreement with the GFS.

Now looking at statewide 3 inch storm total with 6-8 inches possible along the coastal plain. Will go ahead and call 4-5 inches storm total in the triangle region.

Wind also could be a major factor on Wednesday and Thursday as the Coastal low and Great Lakes High create an area of enhanced isobaric flow.

HPC is in genera agreement with a sharp cutoff in the western part of the state. I still think low level low will lead to enhanced precip due to orographic lift. RAH is less bullish on rainfall totals... but that may change later today.

Will try and update later today.