Final prediction

I think for my final call I'm going with 4-7 inches.  Snow may start a bit later as RAP continues to push timing back, but it should last a bit longer as well.  Thinking the heaviest snow will fall between 10 and 11 and it could be heavy.

3 PM update.

RAP has verified well with this storm, and it now shows about eight inches.  12z 4km NAM also increased totals.  Storm has over performed in north Bama and Georgia.  850 low in a good spot.  Now leaning toward 5-9 inches for the triangle.

10:45 AM update

Some enhanced warming aloft could lead to a bit of sleet mixing in with the snow as well as lower liquid to snow ratios a bit.  Because of this I'm going to lower the minimum amount of snow to 2 inches.  I'm actually going to increase the max as well though.  High resolution models are showing a bit more precip then anticipated.  So while we might get more precip, some of it may fall as sleet or graupel.  

So now we're looking at 2-6 inches.  6 inches if it stays a nice fluffy powder and 2 inches if sleet mixes in.

1/27/2014 9:30 PM update

No change in accumulation prediction.  3-5 inches for the triangle.  In fact confidence continues to increase that we will see that 3-5 inches.  I now expect precip to begin between 2 PM and 3 PM and fall as snow until about 1 AM and potentially in end as freezing drizzle by 4 AM.

Weather update 1/27/2014

My first prediction in regards to the upcoming winter weather event is 3-5 inches of snow starting late Tuesday and ending Wednesday morning for the triangle.  Expect less on the NW side of the triangle (Chapel Hill) and more accumulation on the SE side of the triangle (Garner).  The cut off for winter warning criteria snow will be pretty sharp and looks to be near the I85 cooridor and west of 501.  So that would put all of Wake County in the 3-5 inches of snow category.  Another 50 mile jog to the west and we're looking at 6-9 inches.  Another 50 mile jog to the east and we're looking at 1 or 2 inches.

I'll have an update later when the GFS model run becomes available.