3/2 - 3/3 Snowstorm potential

Models are coming into decent agreement now on a classic and potentially historic miller A winter storm for the Carolina and parts of Virginia. A surface low will bomb somewhere near the Gulf Stream/Carolina coastline during the above time frame. The usual very narrow rain/snow line will make this forecast difficult. It's all dependent upon the track and timing of the storm's features along with some smaller scale factors. It's too early to nail down the timing and position of the rain snow line. Heavy snow will be possible along and just west of the rain/snow line. I'm not going to predict precip type of RDU at this time. But will say that rain or snow and windy conditions are becoming more likely for this region early next week.

2/24 snow potential and possible 3/2 -3/3 event

I don't expect much today/tonight. Temps near the surface are very marginal.. Warm ground temps will help to deter any possible accumulation. I expect snow to possibly mix in with the rain this afternoon between 2 and 5 PM. More snow will mix in when the precip is heavier. I wouldn't expect a complete changeover to snow until around sunset. Most of the precip will have fallen before this time. This is a case where the cold air is chasing the precipitation. As a general rule this type of setup rarely leads to snow accumulation. Snow showers will be possible throughout the night. Up to half an inch accumulation is possible within the Triangle.

Another possible storm will approach the region early next month. The storm is several days out therefore timing, location and strength of the major features of this storm are impossible to pin down at this time. However, this storms has a chance to be a major southeastern winter storm... including the triangle. The overall pattern is very favorable for a southeast winter storm. We'll see where that leads us.

2/12 snow 9:50 update

NWS just upgraded Wake County to a winter storm warning. The National Weather Service in Raleigh is now predicting 2-4 inches for the triangle... with up to 5 inches locally... Less in the northwest and more in the southeast.

It's looking like the 2-4 inches for the triangle will verify.

2/12 - 2/13 snowfall update:

Quick detailed update on the timing of the system.

- Some light snow may fall before 6:00 PM but I don't anticipate much in the way of snowfall until after 6:00 PM

- I expect the snowfall will increase in intensity after 10:00 PM with the heaviest snow falling between 11:30 PM and 2:oo AM in the triangle.

- A heavy band could set up near the triangle east/southeast during this time.

- The snow should begin to taper off after 4:00 AM, although light snow will be possible through daybreak.

2/12 Tonight's snowfall

2-4 inches of snow is likely in the triangle tonight. More in the southeast and less in the northwest..

This system has continued to come in wetter and a bit further northwest with the surface features on every run.

I'll update later today with snow totals.

2/4 forecast for best

Tonight: Light rain snow mix mainly after 2:00 AM

Tomorrow: Light Rain/snow mix before 9:OO AM. Becoming a very cold rain after 9:00. The rain could be heavy at time Friday afternoon.

Friday night: Rain.. heavy at times in the evening. The rain will taper off around midnight. Up to 2.5 inches of total rainfall is possible.

Saturday: A chance of light snow mainly between 8:00 AM and 1:oo PM .. Little accumulation expected... if any.


Note: The NWS is predicting freezing rain early Friday morning. This is based on a predicted low of 32 degrees which is sensical. But when water freezes heat is released. Therefore if we do see some light freezing on surfaces it should warm the temp up above freezing. But it isn't out of the realm of possibility that a very brief and light period of freezing rain could occur early Friday morning. This would occur mainly on elevated surfaces. And I'm not even predicting this will happen, but if it does it shouldn't be a big deal.

Persistent cloud cover on Friday night should keep temps at or slightly above freezing.